When is a downturn not a downturn..?

It’s hard to escape the constant ratcheting-up of rhetoric around the economic crisis over the last few months.In the context of sustainability, we’ve seen a flurry of reports and papers on whether sustainability and CSR will survive during the downturn, then the recession and now the economic crisis.

But whilst the titles keep on changing, one thing seems to remain constant: that everyone makes an argument for hanging in there with sustainability endeavours, even in this climate, because they’ll pay dividends in the long run when everything picks up.

Well, what if that is flawed? I don’t mean in the sense that they would not pay off in the upturn. But rather if there is no upturn? 

Every piece of literature seems to assume everything will return to normal at some point; that any corporate strategising around sustainability can assume those same constructs that have stood until now. But they’re not standing at the moment and there’s more than a chance that we’re witnessing the irreparable breakdown of the current model. In which case, these basic tenets on which corporate strategy is being based, need to be reviewed. Joseph Schumpeter (1954) coined a great term for this: preanalytic vision. In other words, before any analysis can be carried out, there has to be something to analyse – a vision. And once that vision has been defined, anything that lies outside of it, cannot be recaptured during the analysis. So is there an argument to say we need to revise our preanalytic vision? Is the very concept of the system being irreparably damaged outside our current vision? Looking at the wealth of ’stick with sustainability’ strategies being touted by consultants at the moment, the answer seems to be yes.

This could be a disaster.

We’re at a defining moment in the way societies view business and how business has to service society and sustainability can play a pivotal role in bringing about these transformations. But in order for that to happen, sustainable strategising must not lean on the conventional tenets – the preanalytic vision of organisational strategy – thinking this bring about the necessary change.

We have to recognise that maybe this is not a downturn, but instead represents a glimpse of the new status quo. How must business adapt to that? G

The arrival of sustainable sustainability..?

A little late I know, but just before the end of the year, we were fortunate enough to be a part of the Sustainable Life Media conference in Miami. As is often the case, the event was full of interesting people extolling the virtues of more sustainable practices – from large MNC’s such as J&J through to some fantastically nimble social start-ups. 

But more than that, there was a real sense of change in the air. A sense that for the first time we were looking at making businesses sustainable, rather than bringing sustainability into business.

In other words, for the first time I sensed that sustainability was being recognised as a key piece of DNA architecture for business, rather than some fan-fared adjunct.The ramifications of this are profound: for a start, this is what Peter Salmon from Moxie (who I had the pleasure to share a plenary session with) has labelled Sustainability 2.0. Or even 3.0. It also suggests an exciting trend that sees sustainability becoming near-impossible to focus on within the firm.

That is not to say that it is absent, but rather just invisible.  Or rather, inherent. 

We are constantly hearing clients and colleagues citing an economic downturn as the worst possible time to embark on initiatives under the sustainability banner. But to make this criticism is to make the mistake that sustainability remains an annexe to the firm – an incidental anecdote to be told when appropriate. This is most certainly wrong; instead, sustainability offers the best chance for firms to remain in business, as they redefine boundaries of influence and re-stock reserves of trust.

This sounds absurd, but for too long, I really do not think the majority of firms have actually viewed sustainability as being linked in any way to their…..well, sustainability. And as such, it has been a nice-to-have appendage.So maybe this is now changing? Maybe Sustainability 2.0 and the crushing re-evaluation of business in the current climate marks the arrival of sustainable sustainability?  

Based on the clear exodus of freshly-empowered CMOs and CEOs from large MNCs at the Miami conference, keen to demonstrate their new-found independence via boutique consulting efforts and old business cards with biro’d new titles and cell phone numbers, it seems so. Which also means sustainability could be finally becoming less about guilt, burden and ‘doing what’s right’ and much more about opportunity, energy and doing what’s exciting. 

 Which would be very exciting indeed.G  

The arrival of the sub-prime brand..?

The financial crisis continues to rage – certainly here in the UK, the unprecedented activity taking place between The Treasury, Bank of England, the FSA and some of the (until now) most respected high street banks, continues to hold our attention. These are dark days; but the light may be in sight. Gordon Brown has said today that the current efforts being made across Europe should see some stability return to the banking system within the next few days. So that’s OK then.

But is there another asset bubble about to burst..? 

With all this talk of reigning in flamboyant valuations and complex financial instruments, is this new conservative push likely to focus on the rampant overvaluations of brands? It could do. Market capitalisation figures (or Enterprise Value, if that’s your preferred measurement) show brand value representing unprecedented levels of company value. Some reports cite as much as 30%. What started out as an exercise to include non-balance sheet value, could have serious implications – because with brand value so strongly linked to free cash flow projections, if a brand is overvalued, then the problem is not just a marketing department’s headache. It’s everyone’s. 

Maybe it will not happen. But it does highlight the parallels – and dangers – of a liberal, free-wheeling system plumping up valuations.

If consumers continue to fall out of love with business – and their brands – then we could see these brands defaulting on payments to their owners.

And as we’ve already seen, the first casualties are the brokers and the middlemen who enjoy(ed) creating and trading complex vehicles that keep the market dynamic. In this case – these are the brand agencies: media, creative, DM etc. The list goes on, but they share one key common quality: it is in their interests to keep making a market that continues to inflate the value of the brand asset.

So are we about to see the beginning of the ‘creative-crunch’…? 

G